Chinese GDP, retail sales and industrial output smash forecasts

The annual rate of economic growth in China held steady in the first quarter of 2025, as industrial production and retail sales growth accelerated in March, though the looming impact of US trade tariffs is likely to weigh on activity in the coming months.

Source: Sharecast

GDP growth stood at 5.4% in the first quarter, compared with the same period a year before, surprising economists who had predicted a slowdown to 5.1%.

Economic expansion was maintained at its strongest annual rate since the second quarter of 2023.

A host of key economic indicators for March also released on Wednesday all came in above forecasts, marking a strong end to the first quarter for the world's second-largest economy.

Fixed asset investment growth accelerated to 4.2% over the January-to-March period, up from 4.1% over December to February, and the highest rate of growth in 11 months.

Industrial production across the country jumped by 7.7% year-on-year last month, compared with the 5.9% growth registered in February and well above the 5.6% consensus forecast. This was the highest rate of annual growth since mid-2021.

Meanwhile, retail sales surged 5.9% compared with last year, following 4.0% growth in February and beating the 4.2% market estimate, marking the strong growth since December 2023.

Analysts at TD Securities said in a note that the March activity data "looks incredulous", and the stronger-than-expected GDP print was "miraculously timely as it puts China's trade negotiators in a position of strength for any trade talks with the US".

Nevertheless, they added: "However, the outlook is still grim as the >100% tariffs between US and China imply that trade flows are likely to cease and China bears a severe hit to GDP at ~3%-pt if there is no trade reallocation."

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