Source: Sharecast
Canaccord Genuity said that with the gold price now up over 25% year-to-date, it has now passed through its most recent commodity price revisions.
"With our gold price revisions up 10-13% from 2025 to 2030 and our LT price up another 11%, we see substantial upside for HOC. We have increased our HOC 2025 and 2026 EBITDA forecasts by 17% and 15%, respectively. However, with the current spot price over US$3,300/oz, there is even further potential upside to our 2025 gold price forecast of US$3,024/oz," said Canaccord Genuity.
The Canadian bank, which has a 'buy' rating on the stock, believes the excess cash flows generated on the back of rising precious metals prices will leave Hochschild's balance sheet in a strong position by year-end 2025, with only $12.0m of net debt now forecast.
With Hochschild now forecast to move into a net cash position in early 2026 on its numbers, Canaccord sees excess cash flow both for potential early-stage funding of its MDC project in Brazil and further shareholder returns.
RBC Capital Markets upgraded Antofagasta on Thursday to ‘sector perform’ from ‘underperform’ but cut the price target to 1,700.0p from 1,800.0p.
The Canadian bank said copper will continue to be kicked around by trade war escalations and de-escalations.
"Our concerns on possible downside scenarios have been tempered by price sensitive demand coming out of China," it said. "However, on the flip side there will be lasting economic damage caused by the uncertainty that likely removes any material upside over the next twelve months."
RBC also noted that since 25 March, Antofagasta shares and the LME copper price have fallen 20.5% and 9.3%, respectively.
"We are more comfortable on the risk profile at these levels and upgrade to sector perform," RBC said.
