Source: Sharecast
Monday's interims include Dialight, Foxtons Group, Keller and Senior, with trading updates from Cranswick, CYBG and Fuller Smith & Turner.
Foxtons shares have lost almost half their value so far this year, with the estate agent reporting challenging market conditions in Q1, with sales volumes down and lettings slow. Broker Peel Hunt expects first-half revenues to be down around 9%, EBITDA down by almost three-quarters to roughly £2m. "The trading backdrop remains difficult and our current forecast points to the group making a small (<£1m) pre-tax loss for the full year in 2018."
On Tuesday, as well as results from US colossus Apple, there's results from Games Workshop, BP, Centrica, Elementis, Gocompare.com, Greggs, IMI, Just Eat, Provident Financial, Rentokil Initial, Shire, Standard Chartered, Taylor Wimpey, Travis Perkins and Weir Group, and updates from Fresnillo, Glencore and Thomas Cook Group.
Just Eat's capital markets day in June sent its shares skidding lower after management said entering a new wave of growth called for additional investments in the short-term to create value in the medium term. "Just Eat's recent share price volatility is a reflection of a change in the narrative for the equity story," said UBS, believing the market is likely to focus around LFL order growth in the UK market, as the market matures amid lingering concerns regarding competition from UberEATS and Deliveroo. The consensus revenue forecast for the full year is £720m. "It is likely that robust order growth would dispel residual concerns of a material slowdown in marketplace growth," analysts said.
Travis Perkins, the builder's merchant that owns the Wickes and Toolstation chains, has in recent months been forced to take a sledgehammer to costs, including a third of its head-office jobs, following a poor results in February blamed on weak consumer confidence and a decline in people doing up their homes. Analysts at Barclays forcast like-for-like sales growth of 3.8% in the second quarter, after 3% in the first.
Midweek there's a turn for Aggreko, BAE Systems, Capita, Dignity, Direct Line, Lloyds Banking, Man Group, Rio Tinto, Smurfit Kappa, and St James's Place, with trading statements from AG Barr and Next.
Capita's new CEO Jonathan Lewis should provide an update on his efforts to sort out the outsourcing company he branded "too complex" and relying too much on acquisitions for growth. Analyst Michael Hewson at CMC Markets has been impressed by the "willingness of the new CEO to take a hatchet to the problems surrounding the business has increased optimism that the company, which has the earned the unfortunate moniker of 'Crapita', would be able to get out of the hole it has found itself in", with May's £660mn rights issue on the upside, but the government recent decision to change its mind on a MoD contract an unwanted negative.
A half-year update for high street bellwether Next will be in focus for the whole retail sector, though the company is also dealing with some self-inflicted problems. Industry data suggests the UK clothing & home market has been running much stronger in the second quarter than the first, analysts at Deutsche Bank noted. "Next's full price brand sales declined 3% in Q1 last year and rose by 0.7% in Q2. As a result of the better market we now assume a more modest deceleration," they suggested, from 6% in Q1 to 4.3% in Q2. UBS, Next’s house broker, predicts a 3% rise in full-price sales.
While Lloyds is looking pretty healthy its shares, like its peers, have been going nowhere, though RBS has been the worst share price performer of the UK banks in 2018 as the trio of UK high street trio have fallen by a combined 5% in recent months. The consensus forecast is for PBT of £1.6bn for Lloyds, including over £650m in provisions for PPI misselling and restructuring. Barclays investment bank will be under focus especially with activist investor Edward Bramson looking to pressure management into offloading the underperforming division, and for RBS, while underlying profits are on the up and it has drawn a line under its US misdeeds with a DoJ fine, but ahead of results there will be Tuesday's 10am update from the City watchdog on the bank's former GRG unit. On RBS, analysts at Morgan Stanley said: “An interim dividend would have a strong signalling effect.”
Thursday's children are Aviva, Barclays, Centamin, Convatec, Ferrexpo, LSEG, Merlin Entertainments, Rolls-Royce, RPS Group, RSA Insurance, Serco Group and Spirent Communications.
Merlin's management to be in a reasonably sunny mood, said Peel Hunt, though this year's risk is that the World Cup and too much sun in Europe will have kept customers away from its attractions. Interims will show a profit behind last year, with analysts forecasting group EBITDA of £138m. "Merlin is starting to see the payback on increased capital investment which followed its acknowledgement that organic growth in the core business was falling short of prior expectations."
Deutsche Bank was cautious on Convatec, having lowered its 2018-2020E EPS on the back of a weaker outlook in wound care and ostomy, and less positive FX, while the need for management to make substantial investments to maintain its current positions.
The week finishes with IAG, Millennium & Copthorne, Mondi and RBS, and trading updates from William Hill, Mitchells & Butlers, Sage and Vedanta.
After its profit warning earlier this year, Sage will be closely scrutinised for further evidence it is back on the right path in its third quarter under it new strategy to grow recurring revenue from its cloud-based software suite. Full year guidance was cut to "around 7%" growth at the interim results, from "around 8%" previously. Said UBS: "Q3 certainly needs to be north of 7% to provide reassurance, and as the impact of the French subscription activation fees are due to have now ended."
CENTRAL BANKS
Also on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan's rate meeting follows some speculation that a tweak may be coming for its bond buying program as the economy starts to show signs of higher prices.
"The Japanese central bank wouldn’t be alone in looking to rein back its stimulus policy in the coming months with the European Central Bank and the Bank of England also mulling the prospects of doing the same thing," said CMC's Hewson.
The August Federal Open Markets Committee meeting on Wednesday should come and go with very little fanfare, economists suggest.
"For one, it is quite rare to see significant tweaks in a meeting that is not accompanied by a press conference," pointed out RBC Capital Markets, which think the FOMC is poised to raise the funds rate by further 50 basis points this year and another 100bps in 2019. But for the 1 August Fed meeting, things have not shifted significantly enough to warrant any notable alterations."
The day after, it's felt to be a close-run thing as the Bank of England's monetary policy committee convenes and publishes its quarterly inflation report, including a first published estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate. The City's jury is still out, but on the whole the MPC is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75% from 0.50% on this particular 'Super Thursday'.
Sam Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, felt the MPC will take a leap of faith and hike the bank rate, despite below-trend GDP growth in the first half of this year and rapidly falling core CPI inflation, with a 7-2 split of the vote as "most members still believe that inflation will exceed the 2% target in the medium term if they don't start to withdraw some monetary stimulus now."
RBC reckoned it will be a unanimous 9-0 vote in favour of the move, but do not expect the updated inflation projections resulting in wholesale changes for GDP and CPI estimates. "Though it is possible, in the context of the outlook for the economy, that the MPC may flag the risks of a potential global trade war, we don’t think that the latest iteration of the fan chart will alter the policy message from the May IR."
Strategists at TD Securities plumped for an 8-1 in favour of a hike, saying the MPC's projections are likely to remain largely unchanged from the May report, as growth and inflation have come out in line with their May forecast. Aligned with many others, TD believes this is likely the last rate hike for a while amid slowing inflation, stagnant but reasonably healthy wage growth and Brexit uncertainty.
Howard Young at the EY Item Club said the recent data makes this "a closer call", but he believes the odds still favour a hike and a split vote.
He added: “With interest rates down at 0.50%, the Bank of England would clearly likely to gradually normalise monetary policy given that it is essentially an emergency low rate. Furthermore, inflation remains above target and the labour market looks relatively tight with the MPC considering that there is little slack left in the economy.”
Monday July 30
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Consumer Confidence (EU) (10:00)
Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Industrial Confidence (EU) (10:00)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Services Confidence (EU) (10:00)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (09:30)
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
INTERIMS
Dialight, Forterra, Foxtons Group, JKX Oil & Gas, Keller Group, Reach, Senior, XP Power Ltd. (DI)
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Cranswick, CYBG, Fuller Smith & Turner
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Compass Group
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Funding Circle SME Income Fund
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
PayPoint
EGMS
B&M European Value Retail S.A. (DI)
AGMS
All Asia Asset Capital Limited (DI), B&M European Value Retail S.A. (DI), China New Energy Limited, Cranswick, G3 Exploration Limited (DI), Greka Drilling Ltd (DI), Kibo Mining, National Grid, Plastics Capital, Redstoneconnect, Trader Media East Ltd GDR (Reg S)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Fidelity China Special Situations , Mediclinic International , PayPoint, Syncona Limited NPV, Vertu Motors
Tuesday July 31
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Chicago PMI (US) (14:45)
Consumer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
GDP (Preliminary) (EU) (10:00)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (US) (13:30)
Personal Income (US) (13:30)
Personal Spending (US) (13:30)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (09:00)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GFK Consumer Confidence (00:01)
FINALS
Games Workshop Group, NWF Group
INTERIMS
4Imprint Group, BP, Centrica, Elementis, Gocompare.com Group, Greggs, IMI, Just Eat , LSL Property Services, Novolipetsk Steel GDS (Reg S), Provident Financial, Rentokil Initial, Sabre Insurance Group, Shire Plc, Standard Chartered, Taylor Wimpey, Travis Perkins, Weir Group
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Fresnillo, Glencore, Novolipetsk Steel, River and Mercantile Group, Thomas Cook Group, Volex,
GMS
Flying Brands Ltd Units, UK Oil & Gas Investments
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Billing Services Group Ltd.
AGMS
Aquila Services Group, Bellzone Mining, Boxhill Technologies , Flying Brands Ltd Units, Hibernia Reit , JPMorgan Japan Smaller Companies Trust, Mitie Group, New Trend Lifestyle Group, Photonstar LED Group, Subex Ltd GDR (Reg S), Syncona Limited NPV, Syncona Limited NPV, Taptica International (DI), Tatton Asset Management , Volex
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
B.P. Marsh & Partners, Cambian Group, Charles Stanley Group, Discoverie Group, Gresham House Strategic , Palace Capital , TR Property Inv Trust
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Bank of Georgia Group, CC Japan Income & Growth Trust, European Investment Trust, Hargreave Hale AIM VCT 1, Marble Point Loan Financing Limited NPV
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Ediston Property Investment Company, F&C Private Equity Trust, Middlefield Canadian Income PCC, Schroder Income Growth Fund, TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund Limited
Wednesday August 01
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (20:30)
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
PMI Manufacturing (US) (14:45)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:30)
FINALS
Hargreaves Services
INTERIMS
Aggreko, BAE Systems, BBA Aviation, Capita, Dignity, Direct Line Insurance Group, Getbusy, Lloyds Banking Group, Man Group, Rio Tinto, Smurfit Kappa Group, St James's Place, StatPro Group
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Barr (A.G.), Koovs, Next
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Record
AGMS
CML Microsystems, Dods Group
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Next, Record, Tate & Lyle
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BBA Aviation 5% Cum Prf, Stride Gaming
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Mercantile Investment Trust (The)
Thursday August 02
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Continuing Claims (US) (12:30)
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Producer Price Index (EU) (11:00)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
PMI Construction (09:30)
FINALS
Clipper Logistics
INTERIMS
Aviva, Barclays, Centamin (DI), Communisis, Convatec Group , Eurocell , Ferrexpo, London Stock Exchange Group, Merlin Entertainments , Non-Standard Finance, Portmeirion Group, Rolls-Royce Holdings, RPS Group, RSA Insurance Group, Serco Group, Spirent Communications, UK Commercial Property Reit Limited, Vivo Energy
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Gattaca, Mitchells & Butlers, Sage Group, Vedanta Resources
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Artemis Alpha Trust, GCP Asset Backed Income Fund Limited
EGMS
Duke Royalty Limited
AGMS
Baillie Gifford UK Growth Fund, Civitas Social Housing, Highbridge Multi-Strategy Fund, VP
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Circle Property , Homeserve, Norcros
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Alpha Financial Markets Consulting, CMC Markets, Downing One VCT , Gordon Dadds Group , Greene King, Latham (James), Micro Focus International, Monks Inv Trust, Motorpoint Group, Panther Securities, QinetiQ Group, Yu Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
ITE Group, WH Smith
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Inchcape, Independent Inv Trust, International Biotech Trust, Microgen, Moneysupermarket.com Group, Octopus Titan VCT, Tyman
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Unilever
Friday August 03
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (US) (13:30)
ISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Composite (US) (14:45)
PMI Services (EU) (09:00)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (US) (14:45)
Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Services (09:30)
INTERIMS
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Mondi, Royal Bank of Scotland Group, William Hill
Q2
Royal Bank of Scotland Group
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Chrysalis VCT, F & C UK High Income Trust B Shares
AGMS
Challenger Acquisitions Limited, Grand vision Media Holdings, Ukrproduct Group Ltd
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aquila Services Group, Aveva Group, Bonmarche Holdings, Brown (N.) Group, Burberry Group, Caffyns, De La Rue, Hibernia Reit , KCOM Group, Next Fifteen Communications, TalkTalk Telecom Group , Telecom Plus, ULS Technology , United Utilities Group, Vodafone Group, Wincanton, Workspace Group, Xpediator
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Autins Group, Chrysalis VCT, Heavitree Brewery, Heavitree Brewery 'A' Shares
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Jupiter Fund Management
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
British Land Company, F & C UK High Income Trust , Scottish Inv Trust
