From Warsaw to Cape Town: The emerging markets stories investors shouldn't miss

Source: Trustnet

Emerging markets are entering 2026 with renewed momentum, supported by structural reforms, improving macroeconomic stability and a move away from the idea of US exceptionalism.

But while China, India and other Asian countries such as Korea and Taiwan dominate the headlines, there are myriad opportunities in other parts of this diverse asset class.

Poland

Poland presents one of the most compelling equity opportunities in emerging Europe, supported by an economy that continues to grow faster than the continental average and is now being catalysed further by significant EU funding directed toward infrastructure, digitalisation and defence.

These investments have strengthened total factor productivity and stimulated gains in real household incomes, creating a durable foundation for domestic demand.

Despite this momentum, valuations remain appealing, with Polish equities trading at a meaningful discount to broader European markets. At the same time, the country’s capital markets have become increasingly vibrant, reflected in landmark corporate activity such as the takeover of InPost, the Warsaw-based logistics and e-commerce fulfilment champion, whose cross-border expansion underlines Poland’s rising corporate sophistication.

Poland’s export sector has experienced remarkable success with growth stemming from a diversified industrial base rather than reliance on a single flagship sector.

The breadth of this export engine reinforces Poland’s external resilience and supports long-term earnings growth for listed companies.

Poland’s institutional framework remains strong and pro-investment policies continue to underpin private sector confidence.

Within this context, two companies illustrate the breadth of Poland’s opportunity set. CD Projekt has established itself as one of Europe’s premier gaming studios, leveraging globally recognised franchises such as The Witcher and Cyberpunk to build long-lasting intellectual property ecosystems.

The firm’s transition toward more disciplined production pipelines and recurring monetisation structures enhances earnings visibility and positions it well for the continued expansion of the global gaming market.

Meanwhile, Allegro dominates Polish e-commerce through a powerful combination of scale, merchant depth and logistical sophistication. Its ability to offer rapid delivery, competitive pricing and strong customer experience has made it deeply embedded in Polish retail behaviour.

Allegro’s growing international push, supported by continued investment in fulfilment infrastructure, reinforces its long-term defensibility and earnings potential.

Greece

Under the Mitsotakis administration, Greece has implemented one of the most ambitious reform programmes in Europe, restoring credibility to public institutions, improving corporate governance, and enabling a return to investment grade sovereign status.

This upgrade has materially reduced funding costs, broadened the eligible investor base and reinforced the durability of Greece’s fiscal trajectory.

Looking ahead, a potential MSCI reclassification to developed market status in 2026 represents a major catalyst, likely to attract significant passive and active inflows from investors who remain structurally underweight Greece after years of crisis induced retrenchment.

One of the clearest indicators of Greece’s renewal is the revitalisation of its banking system. Following years of balance sheet repair, recapitalisation and wholesale restructuring, banks are now in a position to expand credit once more. 

Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank exemplify this improvement. Both have significantly reduced nonperforming exposures, strengthened capital ratios and modernised operations.

As economic confidence improves and loan demand accelerates, particularly in mortgages and corporate lending, these banks are poised to convert operating leverage into sustained profitability.

Their progress reflects not only sector-specific recovery but also a broader improvement in Greece’s economic architecture, in which falling youth unemployment, fiscal stability and investment inflows have turned the country into a Eurozone outperformer. 

Although Greek equities have re-rated, they still trade at a discount to Eurozone peers, leaving considerable room for convergence.

South Africa

South Africa enters 2026 from a position of renewed stability, benefiting from both political recalibration and macroeconomic resilience. The formation of the Government of National Unity has anchored expectations of policy continuity and improved governance, while international engagement has strengthened, most notably through the extension of AGOA to 2026, representing a sign of improving trade diplomacy.

At the macro level, South Africa delivered a solid trade surplus in 2025 despite global tariff headwinds. Elevated precious metal exports and softer oil prices have supported the external balance and contributed to a more favourable currency outlook.

Within this environment, several companies stand out. Capitec remains one of South Africa’s strongest structural growth stories, benefiting from its ability to serve a vast, underbanked SME segment and broaden its customer base into higher income tiers through competitively priced credit offerings and disciplined execution. Its strong returns profile continues to differentiate it in a concentrated banking sector.

Beyond financials, the precious metals complex remains a key driver of South Africa’s equity market appeal. Precious metal and gold producers, such as Goldfields and Anglogold, supported by robust free cashflow generation and strengthened balance sheets, are positioned to convert supportive commodity prices into attractive shareholder returns while also providing macroeconomic stability through export revenues.

Alay Patel is co-manager of Barings Emerging EMEA Opportunities trust. The views expressed above should not be taken as investment advice.